Tag Archives: Rise of the Guardians

Box Office History: Christmas and New Year’s

10 Dec
christmas tree

christmas tree (Photo credit: peminumkopi)

So far the three weekends that followed Thanksgiving have released a grand total of three movies, an average of one per week. Then the weekend after The Hobbit opens there’s a grand total of eight movies being released the weekend before and during Christmas.

Movies as diverse as the Judd Apatow comedy This is 40, the Quentin Tarantino slavery film Django Unchained,  and the Oscar hopeful Les Miserables will be opening. The fact is that the period between Christmas and New Year’s Day is about ten days and is one of the biggest ten days of the year to see movies.

The reason moviegoing at this time is so huge is that everyone at least gets Christmas Eve and Christmas Day off, and that is the minimum amount of days off people usually get. In fact most people get New Year’s Eve and Day off.

In this span of ten days a movie’s box office gets inflated as if it was getting ten free Fridays.  Christmas, which is the biggest box office day of the year,  is bigger than Independence Day and Memorial Day.

Movie studios began to see the amazing box office potential of Christmas and New Year’s when Titanic opened over Christmas and went on to be the biggest box office hit of all time.  Ever since then we have had movies such as Cast Away, The Lord of the Rings Trilogy, Night at the Museum, and Avatar open at Christmas.

In fact the Christmas weekend when Avatar broke the second weekend record is the highest grossing weekend of all time. It’s then followed by the New Year’s weekend where a movie’s box office often increases from the Christmas weekend before it.

In the past two years after seeing how well films can do, movie studios decided the more the merrier, and more films started opening over Christmas to get that ten day bump in box office revenue.

These ten days of box office lead to an embarrassment of riches as there really isn’t a single type of film you can’t see over this period. Whatever type of movie you want to see, Christmas and New Year’s have it.

Holiday Season Forecast

3 Nov

The Holiday Season: In the eyes of the movie business you all are already thinking about Christmas.  Forget that it’s only the second day of November and you haven’t even  eaten all of your Halloween candy yet. 

Just as summer starts in the weekend of May the holiday season for movie studios starts the first weekend of November. The holiday season which goes through New Year’s day is the second most lucrative time of the year for movies behind only the summer. As of late however movies released during the holiday season have started to become just as successful as summer.

Movies such as “Avatar”, “Harry Potter”, and “The Lord of the Rings Trilogy” have all been released during this time of the year. This year appears like it will continue this run with the release of “The Hobbit”, “Twilight Saga Breaking Dawn Part 2”, and “Skyfall”. The holiday season looks to start strong with a really interesting looking animated movie “Wreck it Ralph”.

This Weekend:

  Wreck It Ralph

There’s two new interesting movies but the clear #1 movie this weekend will be Wreck it Ralph. The movie has a very fun premise a video game villain is sick of being the villain so he sets off to become a hero. The trailer is hilarious including a scene where he goes to a video game villain support group.

My Prediction: Any other weekend and I’d say this movie is a likely canidate for 50 million dollars. This weekend however due to hurricane Sandy some movie theaters in the biggest city in the US New York  will remain closed. This could hurt Wreck it Ralph’s box office for the weekend I don”t Think it will destroy it but it will feel an effect. You include great reviews and you’ve got a movie that might start slow but stay in theaters a long time. 

$40 million weekend/$160 million total

My Prediction vs the Experts:

Box Office Mojo: $51 million

Box Office.com: $46 million

The Hollywood Reporter: 45 million

Entertainment Weekly: $38 million

My Overall Forecast:

Now I’m going to pick who will make the most overall money over the next two months.

1. The Hobbit  

“The lord of the Rings Trilogy” was one of the most beloved movies of this generation. The last film “Return of the King” went 11 for 11 at the Oscars so it appeared that making the film’s prequel book into a movie would be a no brainier.  I don’t want to go into it in detail but the best way to say it is that it took a little a while to actually begin shooting.

It’s a competitive year for “the Hobbit” to release itself in. Already there have been 3 $400 million dollar movies “The Avengers  (622 million), “The Dark Knight Rises” (447 million), and “The Hunger Games” (408 million) but I believe the film should at least surpass “The Hunger Games and become the #3 movie of they year. If not it will still be a billion dollar movie nonetheless. The budget is also enormous for these movies so the visuals will be fantastic even if the movie isn’t as good as the trilogy.

Forecast: $152 million/ $425 million

2. Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2   

I don’t want to rip on these movies I’m just forecasting how much money movies this holiday season will make. So I will just say this movie will make a  huge amount of money. How huge is the real question to me. Tickets are selling at a record breaking pace and the advance ticket website fandango says that 40% of all advanced tickets are for this movie. These factors combine in me making a bold prediction Twilight will not break “The Avenger’s” all time opening weekend record of $207 million but it will break the last “Harry Potter’s” opening day record of $91 million dollars. So I will say it will become the first movie to make $100 million dollars in one day

Here’s a list of all time opening days

Forecast: $175 million/$335 million

3. Skyfall 

The last film was a disappointment but audiences will forgive “Qauntam Of Solace” especially since Daniel Craig is the second best James Bond of all time. Plus The trailers have been fantastic as are the reviews so we have another no brainer this film will likely become the highest grossing James Bond movie of all time.

Forecast: $75 million/$200 million

Films to Watch For:

                 

Silver Linings Playbook: Jennifer Lawrence “The Hunger Games” officially becomes the hottest actress on the planet. This movie will bring her Oscar nomination total to two already and she’s so young and she also has two high paying movie franchise jobs in the “X men” and “Hunger Games”. Bradley Cooper officially gets himself out of “The Hangover” shadow as well with talks of him maybe getting a nomination too. So box office is tricky to predict for this one because it’s an indie movie but also a strong Oscar contender Forecast: $100 million dollars. (Being released limited first so it’s harder to predict its opening weekend)

Django Unchained: Quentin Tarantino is one the few remaining directors who can do whatever he wants however he wants to do it. Thank god, because this movie looks insanley good.  He’s got Jaime Foxx as a freed slave and Leonardo DiCaprio as an evil plantation owner. Forecast: $40 million(six days released on Christmas which is a Tuesday)/ $130 million

Lincoln: Steven Spielberg is making a movie about Abraham Lincoln. That already has a ton of appeal add in Oscar talk for Daniel day Lewis and the film itself and you’ve got a potential blockbuster. Forecast: $120 million (limited opening)

Rise of the Guardians  Easily the most likely hit of these films but i must applaud the concept. Santa, the Easter Bunny, and The Tooth Fairy combing to make a lethal fighting group. If I were a kid I’d be freaking out and I sort of am already it is a cool concept. Forecast: $55 million (Five days released on Wednesday before Thanksgiving)/ $155 million