Box Office Nerd Poll: Christmas Movies *Not an Informational post Informational posts are below this12 Dec
So far the three weekends that followed Thanksgiving have released a grand total of three movies, an average of one per week. Then the weekend after The Hobbit opens there’s a grand total of eight movies being released the weekend before and during Christmas.
Movies as diverse as the Judd Apatow comedy This is 40, the Quentin Tarantino slavery film Django Unchained, and the Oscar hopeful Les Miserables will be opening. The fact is that the period between Christmas and New Year’s Day is about ten days and is one of the biggest ten days of the year to see movies.
The reason moviegoing at this time is so huge is that everyone at least gets Christmas Eve and Christmas Day off, and that is the minimum amount of days off people usually get. In fact most people get New Year’s Eve and Day off.
In this span of ten days a movie’s box office gets inflated as if it was getting ten free Fridays. Christmas, which is the biggest box office day of the year, is bigger than Independence Day and Memorial Day.
Movie studios began to see the amazing box office potential of Christmas and New Year’s when Titanic opened over Christmas and went on to be the biggest box office hit of all time. Ever since then we have had movies such as Cast Away, The Lord of the Rings Trilogy, Night at the Museum, and Avatar open at Christmas.
In fact the Christmas weekend when Avatar broke the second weekend record is the highest grossing weekend of all time. It’s then followed by the New Year’s weekend where a movie’s box office often increases from the Christmas weekend before it.
In the past two years after seeing how well films can do, movie studios decided the more the merrier, and more films started opening over Christmas to get that ten day bump in box office revenue.
These ten days of box office lead to an embarrassment of riches as there really isn’t a single type of film you can’t see over this period. Whatever type of movie you want to see, Christmas and New Year’s have it.
Movie studios are running a week in advance:
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey is just two weeks away from release. This weekend coming up there is only one film being released which is a little romantic comedy, Playing for Keeps with Gerard Butler. The reason no other film is even being released is that every movie studio fears The Hobbit.
Say you work at a movie studio and you see this weekend only has a minor Gerard Butler film being released three weekends before Christmas; they normally jump at the chance to release a big movie. The reason no one has is that they might get a solid opening weekend performance, but in its second weekend the film would likely lose at least half of its audience. The movie studio releasing the Gerard Butler film is hoping for a miracle that the film will be well received and serve as something called counter programming.
Counter programming is when there’s a big box office blockbuster devouring all the money. If people are getting sold out from the showing of the big box office blockbuster or are not a fan of those type of movies, then the Gerard Butler movie is a nice alternative for them. The problem is there’s also the Steven Spielberg film Lincoln and others that probably serve as better options for counter programming.
Early Box Office Forecast have The Hobbit opening to at least $100 million:
It’s a little early to predict box office, but they’re already some very early rough box office estimates. Box office magazine predicts an opening weekend of $137 million. So far no box office prediction with the movie still weeks away has it opening to under $100 million. Deadline predicts 106( you have scroll down a little and it’s on the right hand side). So far nobody thinks this won’t break the all time December opening weekend record set by I Am Legend.
The premiere in New Zeland of The Hobbit was a success with over 100,000 people attending in the city of Wellington. So far no reviews of the film have been released, but it appears there will be some this week. Once reviews start to appear, we can get a better sense of what is to come with the film’s box office.
So what do you think right now The Hobbit’s box office will be?
- ‘Hobbit’ may bring a Hollywood ending to 2012 box office (sfluxe.com)
- Predicting a Weekend at the Box Office (boxofficenerd.wordpress.com)