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Predicting a Weekend at the Box Office

1 Dec
English: Brad Pitt at the Burn After Reading p...

English: Brad Pitt at the Burn After Reading premiere (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

This upcoming weekend at the box office will not excite as much as previous weekends. Since The Hobbit is a mere two weeks away, it’s still easy to be excited about the box office, though.

1. Killing them Softly

There is really only one film I want to talk about going into this weekend, the Brad Pitt film Killing them Softly. This is the only new wide release this weekend, and critics have generally liked the film. The movie is in the gangster genre and features returns to this genre from James Gandolfini and Ray Liotta.

With that in mind, I could see the opening box office for this film reaching the double digit millions, but it will be close.

My prediction: $11 million/$35 million total

My Prediction vs the experts: 

Box Office Mojo: $9.5 million

Entertainment Weekly: $8 million

The Hollywood Reporter: $8 million-$10 million

So what do you think of the box office prospects of this movie and The Hobbit coming in 2 weeks?

Holiday Season Forecast

3 Nov

The Holiday Season: In the eyes of the movie business you all are already thinking about Christmas.  Forget that it’s only the second day of November and you haven’t even  eaten all of your Halloween candy yet. 

Just as summer starts in the weekend of May the holiday season for movie studios starts the first weekend of November. The holiday season which goes through New Year’s day is the second most lucrative time of the year for movies behind only the summer. As of late however movies released during the holiday season have started to become just as successful as summer.

Movies such as “Avatar”, “Harry Potter”, and “The Lord of the Rings Trilogy” have all been released during this time of the year. This year appears like it will continue this run with the release of “The Hobbit”, “Twilight Saga Breaking Dawn Part 2”, and “Skyfall”. The holiday season looks to start strong with a really interesting looking animated movie “Wreck it Ralph”.

This Weekend:

  Wreck It Ralph

There’s two new interesting movies but the clear #1 movie this weekend will be Wreck it Ralph. The movie has a very fun premise a video game villain is sick of being the villain so he sets off to become a hero. The trailer is hilarious including a scene where he goes to a video game villain support group.

My Prediction: Any other weekend and I’d say this movie is a likely canidate for 50 million dollars. This weekend however due to hurricane Sandy some movie theaters in the biggest city in the US New York  will remain closed. This could hurt Wreck it Ralph’s box office for the weekend I don”t Think it will destroy it but it will feel an effect. You include great reviews and you’ve got a movie that might start slow but stay in theaters a long time. 

$40 million weekend/$160 million total

My Prediction vs the Experts:

Box Office Mojo: $51 million

Box Office.com: $46 million

The Hollywood Reporter: 45 million

Entertainment Weekly: $38 million

My Overall Forecast:

Now I’m going to pick who will make the most overall money over the next two months.

1. The Hobbit  

“The lord of the Rings Trilogy” was one of the most beloved movies of this generation. The last film “Return of the King” went 11 for 11 at the Oscars so it appeared that making the film’s prequel book into a movie would be a no brainier.  I don’t want to go into it in detail but the best way to say it is that it took a little a while to actually begin shooting.

It’s a competitive year for “the Hobbit” to release itself in. Already there have been 3 $400 million dollar movies “The Avengers  (622 million), “The Dark Knight Rises” (447 million), and “The Hunger Games” (408 million) but I believe the film should at least surpass “The Hunger Games and become the #3 movie of they year. If not it will still be a billion dollar movie nonetheless. The budget is also enormous for these movies so the visuals will be fantastic even if the movie isn’t as good as the trilogy.

Forecast: $152 million/ $425 million

2. Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2   

I don’t want to rip on these movies I’m just forecasting how much money movies this holiday season will make. So I will just say this movie will make a  huge amount of money. How huge is the real question to me. Tickets are selling at a record breaking pace and the advance ticket website fandango says that 40% of all advanced tickets are for this movie. These factors combine in me making a bold prediction Twilight will not break “The Avenger’s” all time opening weekend record of $207 million but it will break the last “Harry Potter’s” opening day record of $91 million dollars. So I will say it will become the first movie to make $100 million dollars in one day

Here’s a list of all time opening days

Forecast: $175 million/$335 million

3. Skyfall 

The last film was a disappointment but audiences will forgive “Qauntam Of Solace” especially since Daniel Craig is the second best James Bond of all time. Plus The trailers have been fantastic as are the reviews so we have another no brainer this film will likely become the highest grossing James Bond movie of all time.

Forecast: $75 million/$200 million

Films to Watch For:

                 

Silver Linings Playbook: Jennifer Lawrence “The Hunger Games” officially becomes the hottest actress on the planet. This movie will bring her Oscar nomination total to two already and she’s so young and she also has two high paying movie franchise jobs in the “X men” and “Hunger Games”. Bradley Cooper officially gets himself out of “The Hangover” shadow as well with talks of him maybe getting a nomination too. So box office is tricky to predict for this one because it’s an indie movie but also a strong Oscar contender Forecast: $100 million dollars. (Being released limited first so it’s harder to predict its opening weekend)

Django Unchained: Quentin Tarantino is one the few remaining directors who can do whatever he wants however he wants to do it. Thank god, because this movie looks insanley good.  He’s got Jaime Foxx as a freed slave and Leonardo DiCaprio as an evil plantation owner. Forecast: $40 million(six days released on Christmas which is a Tuesday)/ $130 million

Lincoln: Steven Spielberg is making a movie about Abraham Lincoln. That already has a ton of appeal add in Oscar talk for Daniel day Lewis and the film itself and you’ve got a potential blockbuster. Forecast: $120 million (limited opening)

Rise of the Guardians  Easily the most likely hit of these films but i must applaud the concept. Santa, the Easter Bunny, and The Tooth Fairy combing to make a lethal fighting group. If I were a kid I’d be freaking out and I sort of am already it is a cool concept. Forecast: $55 million (Five days released on Wednesday before Thanksgiving)/ $155 million

Weekend Box Office Forecast

19 Oct

Image

This weekend gives us another paranormal activity movie. “Paranormal Activity” is now holding the mantle once held by the “Saw” movies releasing a movie every Halloween.  Coming off yet another 100 million dollar film last year it’s obvious there will be a lot more of these. They’re three key questions to ask while forecasting this weekend.

1. What is the consistent appeal of these movies?

The first film came out of nowhere, costing 30,000 dollars to make and then grossing over 100 million dollars. The second opened to 40 million dollars and the third opened to 52 million dollars and made over 100 million dollars. The common rule of sequels is the second movie has higher opening weekend and total gross and every subsequent sequel faces diminishing returns.”The Paranormal Activity” films have the same found footage premise and yet audiences haven’t gotten sick of it.

The found footage phenomenon tries to give the audiences the impression that what is occurring really happened. “Paranormal Activity” was not the first movie to play this concept to huge box office.

“The Blair Witch Project” in 1999 was the first to use this gimmick to make over 100 million dollars. It was a brilliant marketing ploy at the time audiences really weren’t sure if the movie was real or not. The movie itself wasn’t that great except for the ending. Nevertheless the low-budget nature of both films helps sell the perception that it’s real because they look homemade.

When released “Paranormal Activity” took the found footage gimmick and applied it to a home movie of people sleeping while creepy events occurred. I’ve seen two of the three films in theaters and audiences I believe at this point don’t believe this is real. So it seems there is something more to these films than just being scary because it’s real.

When I went to see the films in theaters the real appeal wasn’t the films themselves but the crowd. Yelling and screaming is important when you go to these movies. If you yell and scream at the screen when you go to see “Looper” or “Argo” people would be pissed. The reason to see these movies is to get the community atmosphere because the films themselves are not that good without the crowd.

2. Does this Franchise finally feel the effect of diminishing returns?

The appeal of these movies has to eventually diminish. While the community atmosphere is still appealing  the films big shock moments that cause the screams are becoming increasingly predictable. Eventually audiences will start to predict the shock moments and the screams and yells will be quieter.

Diminishing returns are inevitable likely starting with this movie but, it doesn’t mean the next few movies won’t make a lot of money.

This leads to question 3

3. How Much Will Paranormal Activity 4 make this weekend?

Since I believe the franchise still has momentum due to audiences liking the community atmosphere it will still have a huge opening weekend. As I pointed out earlier the shock moments are growing more predictable so audiences will start to wonder why they’re paying 10 bucks to see the same movie over and over again.

My Prediction: $44 million the movie begins to experience diminishing returns but still opens huge.

My Prediction vs Experts: My prediction is 44 million dollars

 Box Office Mojo predicts: 42 millions

Box Office.com predicts: 46 million

The Hollywood Reporter predicts: less than 40 million.

As you can see only one of us is making a bold prediction because this movie’s performance is very predictable. Throughout this blog I hope to make more bold predictions and compare my results with experts predictions. I also have the benefit of not worrying about any consequences for making too bold a prediction.

Now that I’ve given my opinion give me your opinion of the films or their Box Office prospects

Predicting a Weekend at the Box Office

17 Oct

How much will Paranormal activity 4 make this weekend? This Friday I’m going to give my first forecast and you can provide your own forecasts based on the information available. I’ll go into depth on my opinion of the franchise and when diminishing returns of audience excitement will begin to take place.