Holiday Season Forecast

3 Nov

The Holiday Season: In the eyes of the movie business you all are already thinking about Christmas.  Forget that it’s only the second day of November and you haven’t even  eaten all of your Halloween candy yet. 

Just as summer starts in the weekend of May the holiday season for movie studios starts the first weekend of November. The holiday season which goes through New Year’s day is the second most lucrative time of the year for movies behind only the summer. As of late however movies released during the holiday season have started to become just as successful as summer.

Movies such as “Avatar”, “Harry Potter”, and “The Lord of the Rings Trilogy” have all been released during this time of the year. This year appears like it will continue this run with the release of “The Hobbit”, “Twilight Saga Breaking Dawn Part 2”, and “Skyfall”. The holiday season looks to start strong with a really interesting looking animated movie “Wreck it Ralph”.

This Weekend:

  Wreck It Ralph

There’s two new interesting movies but the clear #1 movie this weekend will be Wreck it Ralph. The movie has a very fun premise a video game villain is sick of being the villain so he sets off to become a hero. The trailer is hilarious including a scene where he goes to a video game villain support group.

My Prediction: Any other weekend and I’d say this movie is a likely canidate for 50 million dollars. This weekend however due to hurricane Sandy some movie theaters in the biggest city in the US New York  will remain closed. This could hurt Wreck it Ralph’s box office for the weekend I don”t Think it will destroy it but it will feel an effect. You include great reviews and you’ve got a movie that might start slow but stay in theaters a long time. 

$40 million weekend/$160 million total

My Prediction vs the Experts:

Box Office Mojo: $51 million

Box Office.com: $46 million

The Hollywood Reporter: 45 million

Entertainment Weekly: $38 million

My Overall Forecast:

Now I’m going to pick who will make the most overall money over the next two months.

1. The Hobbit  

“The lord of the Rings Trilogy” was one of the most beloved movies of this generation. The last film “Return of the King” went 11 for 11 at the Oscars so it appeared that making the film’s prequel book into a movie would be a no brainier.  I don’t want to go into it in detail but the best way to say it is that it took a little a while to actually begin shooting.

It’s a competitive year for “the Hobbit” to release itself in. Already there have been 3 $400 million dollar movies “The Avengers  (622 million), “The Dark Knight Rises” (447 million), and “The Hunger Games” (408 million) but I believe the film should at least surpass “The Hunger Games and become the #3 movie of they year. If not it will still be a billion dollar movie nonetheless. The budget is also enormous for these movies so the visuals will be fantastic even if the movie isn’t as good as the trilogy.

Forecast: $152 million/ $425 million

2. Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2   

I don’t want to rip on these movies I’m just forecasting how much money movies this holiday season will make. So I will just say this movie will make a  huge amount of money. How huge is the real question to me. Tickets are selling at a record breaking pace and the advance ticket website fandango says that 40% of all advanced tickets are for this movie. These factors combine in me making a bold prediction Twilight will not break “The Avenger’s” all time opening weekend record of $207 million but it will break the last “Harry Potter’s” opening day record of $91 million dollars. So I will say it will become the first movie to make $100 million dollars in one day

Here’s a list of all time opening days

Forecast: $175 million/$335 million

3. Skyfall 

The last film was a disappointment but audiences will forgive “Qauntam Of Solace” especially since Daniel Craig is the second best James Bond of all time. Plus The trailers have been fantastic as are the reviews so we have another no brainer this film will likely become the highest grossing James Bond movie of all time.

Forecast: $75 million/$200 million

Films to Watch For:

                 

Silver Linings Playbook: Jennifer Lawrence “The Hunger Games” officially becomes the hottest actress on the planet. This movie will bring her Oscar nomination total to two already and she’s so young and she also has two high paying movie franchise jobs in the “X men” and “Hunger Games”. Bradley Cooper officially gets himself out of “The Hangover” shadow as well with talks of him maybe getting a nomination too. So box office is tricky to predict for this one because it’s an indie movie but also a strong Oscar contender Forecast: $100 million dollars. (Being released limited first so it’s harder to predict its opening weekend)

Django Unchained: Quentin Tarantino is one the few remaining directors who can do whatever he wants however he wants to do it. Thank god, because this movie looks insanley good.  He’s got Jaime Foxx as a freed slave and Leonardo DiCaprio as an evil plantation owner. Forecast: $40 million(six days released on Christmas which is a Tuesday)/ $130 million

Lincoln: Steven Spielberg is making a movie about Abraham Lincoln. That already has a ton of appeal add in Oscar talk for Daniel day Lewis and the film itself and you’ve got a potential blockbuster. Forecast: $120 million (limited opening)

Rise of the Guardians  Easily the most likely hit of these films but i must applaud the concept. Santa, the Easter Bunny, and The Tooth Fairy combing to make a lethal fighting group. If I were a kid I’d be freaking out and I sort of am already it is a cool concept. Forecast: $55 million (Five days released on Wednesday before Thanksgiving)/ $155 million

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12 Responses to “Holiday Season Forecast”

  1. ktibby214 November 7, 2012 at 3:39 pm #

    I liked your opening hook. It is strange to think that this time of year marks the beginning of the “holiday” season for movies, but it’s so true. Overall, your post was great. I would just watch out for commas, run-ons and little things like that. Great otherwise!

  2. blackjackofalltrades November 7, 2012 at 3:49 pm #

    I agree with Kelsey – the opening hook was really great. I love Christmas and can’t wait for Christmas movies to start playing on TV so it was definitely an awesome way to hook in readers. I also think you made good use of the links. However, again agreeing with Kelsey, it is really distracting when sentences aren’t broken up correctly or there’s poor grammar/comma placement and stuff. It’s minor but I think it would really help fine tune the posts if those were addressed! But good job!

  3. Christina R November 7, 2012 at 3:49 pm #

    I really enjoyed this post! I am certainly not a box office nerd but you did an excellent job at making it understandable to us normal movie viewers. The opening lured me in and kept interest throughout. I also really enjoyed all of the links you provided. Great job!

  4. Andrew November 7, 2012 at 3:54 pm #

    Awesome post! This is easily one of the most informative posts I’ve read in class thus far. It really shows that you know what you are talking about and that you care about the subject. This isn’t a topic I’m normally very interested in, but your hook captivated me and brought me the whole way through. Nice job with the links as well, they provided great depth to what you were talking about throughout the post.

    • Andrew November 7, 2012 at 3:55 pm #

      Also: this is borderline heresey, but I like Craig more than Connery as bond.

  5. moose4188 November 7, 2012 at 3:55 pm #

    I liked the links that show the expert predictions compared to your own. It gives us a frame of reference to understand why you predict a certain way. One suggestion I have is to possibly break this up into multiple posts. It is a lot of reading to do for one post. I think it could have gone longer because the information you can write is almost endless, but that is why it could be multiple posts. Also I think that the twilight franchise has shown a ceiling of how many people will watch the movie. So I think its opening day will be more likely around $85 million and a weekend of $165 million finishing around $325 in the end. Also I think the Hobbit will be excellent but may not reach $400 million. It will be interesting to see its opening weekend however since it is the first Rings film not to open on a wednesday.

    • tatkinson8063 November 7, 2012 at 4:08 pm #

      The more I think about I felt I was a tad bold with Twilight I might say a close race with potter and 90- 95 million opening day. The hobbit will make 400 million thanks to 3D.

  6. jdodd1650 November 7, 2012 at 3:56 pm #

    I really like how the first thing you included in this post was a picture to remind us that the holiday season is already upon us. I enjoyed reading this post since the holidays and the summer really are the best times of the year for films. I think the only criticism that I would have would be to focus on a few movies over the course of the holiday season rather than a large list. I am a huge fan of movies and love to see what’s new but I think focusing on a few would make your post a little more concise. I do, however, think that your links are very informative and works well with the post. Nice work!

  7. rsances61 November 7, 2012 at 4:15 pm #

    this was a avery informative post with a lot of good information and analysis. i liked that you made your own predictions and compared them with other sites. it allowed for comparison as well as providing some outside opinion. god work

  8. chrislabella18 November 7, 2012 at 4:40 pm #

    I like the subject matter on this site and the article is well done, good work.

  9. Mark November 15, 2012 at 3:13 pm #

    Lots of useful feedback here!

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